US Open Preview

The US Open, which runs from August 29th through September 11th, is the final major of the year and it's one of my favorites to watch.  Mostly because is on my mainland so the TV coverage on ESPN2 is INSANE, from about 11am EST to 11pm - and if a match goes past 11pm, which it normally does, there's more!  Going into the US Open this year, we get another chance to watch what happens with the Djokovic-Nadal-Federer thrivalry.  I find the thrivalry extremely fascinating in the fact that Nadal has figured out how to crack the Federer code, Federer seems to have cracked the Djokovic code, and Djokovic has definitely figured out how to crack the Nadal code.  Djokovic should be the top seed in the tournament, so we'll have to watch to see which side of the draw Roger Federer ends up on.  All eyes will definitely be on the thrivalry once the tournament begans - will Djokovic continue his domination over Nadal this year, will Nadal finally get one under his cap against Nole in 2011, or will Federer spoil the party for both of them?  But let us not forget about the other guys, mainly Juan Martin Del Potro. 

Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic is on an incredible run this year, only having been defeated once and that was by Federer in the French Open semi finals.  He needs a great result at the US Open to give himself a safety net in his rankings lead over Nadal, who is defending champion.  Great result meaning he HAS to make the finals to defend the 1200 points he earned last year by making the final - losing in the final to Nadal.  Currently Djokovic has about 2000 points over Nadal in the rankings - a good showing for him at the Open would be a definite plus for him going into next year.  Come 2012, Djokovic will have a LOT of points to defend.  He has three things on his side VS Nadal going into the tournament.  One, he has a perfect 5-0 record against Rafa this year, all five of those wins have been in finals - four masters series events & one major.  Two, traditionally, hard courts have been Djokovic's strongest surface and Nadal's weakest, or at least the one that took Nadal longest to master.  Three, he is inside Nadal's head.  I think all pressure should be off of Nole at the US Open.  He has already captured the number one  position in the rankings, and consolidated that by beating Nadal in the finals of Wimbledon.

Rafael Nadal

Rafael Nadal comes into the US Open as defending champion, with 2000 points that he could lose in the rankings if he doesn't win this year's title.  Already being about 2000 behind Djokovic in the rankings could make reclaiming the number one position more than a chore than it will be already. With the stress of defending championship points, and Nole in his head, this will be a hard one for Nadal.  The injury Rafa sustained at Wimbledon should be well healed and he should have no need for the cortisone shots he was taking.  That being said, hard courts are hard on most bodies, they are especially hard on Nadal's given the violent, harsh style of play he possesses.  Also, by the time the US Open comes around, Nadal's body has already taken a beating.  Rafa is only 25, but his body has a lot of miles on it, and his ultimate domination days are behind him.  His best chance for wins at majors will be at Roland Garros and Wimbledon.

Roger Federer

Coming in at a distant number three is the great Roger Federer.  Roger hasn't won major since the 2010 Australian Open, and his best chance to win another major would be on the hard courts, either the US Open or the Australian Open.  No longer is he able to just coast through a major to reach the finals, not even at his beloved Wimbledon.  Too many of the guys are a step ahead of him, fitter than him, and too many know how to beat him.  Some will argue that he is the greatest of all time (GOAT), but I don't subscribe to that thought.  How can he be the greatest of all time, when he has been unable to tame the likes of the Spanish Bull, Rafael Nadal.  The man is a masterful tennis player, but the greatest he is not, one of the greatest, without a doubt.  Although I believe that he can win another major before he retires, it's safe to say that his best tennis is well behind him.  The 30 year old has too many things against him, like Djokovic, Nadal, Murray, Tsonga, Del Potro (you get the idea).  He will definitely have something to prove to himself going into the US Open, but the chips will be stacked against him.

Andy Murray

Andy Murray.  The plight of this guy is (fill in the blank).  We all know that he has the game to win a major, but his head won't let him break through.  He's beaten Nole, Rafa, and Roger on more than one occasion, but not when it really counts.  Maybe he'll look at what Djokovic has been able to do this year and get some encouragement, or maybe at least pull his head out his arse & stop being such a 'brat' on court - a little positive display would take him a long way.  Murray's best performance at the US Open came in 2008 where he lost miserably to Federer 2-6, 5-7, 2-6.  Since then, he hasn't made it past the round of 16.  It has been said many times that sooner or later he will win a major, but the more I see him play big matches, the less I believe it.  I think the problem is that he doesn't believe it either.  

Juan Martin Del Potro

Juan Martin Del Potro won this tournament in 2009 before his injury, beating down Nadal in the semis 6-2, 6-2, 6-2, and taking out Federer in the final in five sets.  He will be seeded at this year's Open, so there shouldn't be any early match ups with the top guys.  He has steadily improved this year, losing early in both the French (Djokovic in four sets, round of 32) & Wimbledon (Nadal in four sets round of 16).  He started out 2011 ranked number 484, and as of now (7/20/11), he stands at number 19.  The courts at Flushing Meadows suit his style of hard flat hitting, and he moves pretty well for a big guy.  I don't expect that he will win the tournament, but he will definitely give any one of the 'Big Four' a run for their money.  (**sidenote: I'm beginning to have trouble including Andy Murray in the Big Four - it just doesn't sound right anymore)


There are some other players that can possibly have a good run at the US Open, but I expect that the semi finals will be contested by four of the five listed in this post.  The US Open is truly the tournament of champions, meaning there are rarely break through performances here.  Before coming to New York, the top players have had six weeks to sharpen their hard court games, unlike the Australian Open at the beginning of the year, or the French & especially Wimbledon where there are very few warm up tournaments.  

Obviously, there is some time before the Open begins, and we have the next month or so to watch players performances during the Olympus US Open Series, but this year's Open is going to be electric...I promise!  It must be love.


Also, you can check livescorehunter.com to see US Open Series matches through the week which are not broadcast on TV.

Wimbledon Men's Final Review

The fortnight has come and gone, and what better way to end than with the top two ranked players in the world (1a & 1b) playing for the most prestigious tennis title in the sport.  This was one of the most highly anticipated finals since Federer/Nadal back in 2008.  Much of the conversation revolved around the rankings.  By making the final, Nole insured that come Monday when new rankings were released, he would be the new number one player.  Many wondered if Djokovic could truly be considered the best player in world if he was beaten by Nadal in the Wimbledon final.  Today, Nole put an end to those questions by beating Rafa in four sets 6-4, 6-1, 1-6, 6-3 to win in his first ever Wimbledon final.  In doing so, Nole broke the twenty match winning streak that Rafa had on the grounds of the All England Lawn Tennis & Croquet Club, and his record for the year improves to 48-1.  This marks the first time since 2003 that someone other than Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal won the title.

The match started off as a slug fest, with Nole serving, and quickly getting in a 15-30 hole.  It looked as if Nadal was going to put the hammer down right away, but Nole tightened up his game, hit an ace for 30 all, then pulled out the game.  Things stayed tight until Rafa was serving at 4-5.  He got up 30 love in the game, then Nole comes up with some hot shots to take the game and the set 6-4.  

The second was rather odd, Rafa looked like a man defeated, and Nole ran away with the set in 33 minutes, winning 6-1.  Then the third set was a reversal of the second, with Rafa taking it 6-1 in thirty minutes.  For some watching it seemed as if the gravity of the moment had hit the Djoker, and his wheels were going to fall off.  

The fourth started with Nole serving, and what a tough service game it was, but he was able to hold.  He breaks Nadal in his first service game, but is immediately broken back.  Then the level for both guys goes back up, until serving at 3-4, Rafa throws in a double fault and a rash of unforced errors and is broken at 15-40.  Serving for the match, Djokovic got down 0-15, but quickly regrouped and and was able to serve out the match, only needing one championship point to get it done.  Novak said later after the match "This is what I'm born for.  I want to win more Grand Slams. I will definitely not stop here."

Novak was able to neutralize the Nadal cross court forehand with his backhand.  With most players, including Federer, the Nadal forehand was/is a lethal weapon.  Longer rallies beat Rafa down, this is normally the opposite with most players, players not named Novak Djokovic.  Nole won this championship with a combination of tactics, one of them being his net play.  He came to net 26 times and won 19 of those net points.  He won 72% of his first serves and 54% of his second - compare that to Rafa's 67% and 44% respectively -  this was another aspect that helped him win.  Along with break point conversions, each guy had six chances to break.  Nole broke the Nadal serve five times, whereas Nadal was only able to break three - twice in the third set, and once in the fourth.  The biggest factor was mentally.  Rafa went into the final with the knowledge that Djokovic had beaten him in the last four finals they had played in 2011.  This weighed on Nadal - what other reason would so many of his shots, especially forehands, went wide or into the net.  

Djokovic is now under Nadal's skin.  Djokovic's performance this year against Nadal has shades of the Nadal/Federer rivalry.  In the beginning The Federer dominated Nadal on all surfaces except the clay, then a determined Nadal fine tuned his game and was able to crack the Federer code.  No one is ready yet to totally discount Roger Federer, but his dominance began when Rafa was much younger, and with Roger turning 30 later next month, his best tennis is well behind him.  Rafa began beating Federer regularly, eventually taking over the number one position.  The same has happened with Djokovic, but this time with Nadal is now in Roger's shoes.  With Nadal and Djokovic, this rivalry proves to be one that will last, at least as long as Nadal's body holds up.  Click here for link to Djokovic's post match interview, and here for Nadal's.

We tennis fans are witnesses to the Golden Age of tennis, and with the new crop of hard hitting, aggressive, attacking players, things will only get better!

Wimbledon Final Preview

Petra Kvitova

I would first like to congratulate Petra Kvitova on her first Grand Slam win, defeating '04 Maria Sharapova convincingly in straight sets.  I do not believe that she will be a one Slam wonder.  This one has the game & the guts to be a threat for years to come.

The fortnight is almost over, and we find ourselves on the eve of the Men's Wimbledon final, and the top two seeds stand ready to battle for the trophy.   The match will be a very close one, but one thing is clear - Monday morning when the rankings come out, for the first time in seven years, Federer or Nadal will not appear at the top - Novak Djokovic has claimed the number one position by making it to the finals.  With Rafa nursing a foot injury, and Nole now free of the pressure of trying to become number one, I give him the slightest edge.  But then again, across the court will be Rafael Nadal & he is a different animal when it comes to finals in a major.  Neither of the finalists have played their best tennis to make it this far, but like true champions, they fought through the field.   Their service games for the tournament have been close w/Nadal edging by a percentage point in each category, except second serves won (1st serves in Nadal 69.5%, Djokovic 68.7%; 1st serves won Nadal 79.2%, Djokovic 78.8%; 2nd serves won Nadal 60%, Djokovic 61%).  Nole does hold a slight edge with winners & this match will come down to just that - unreturnable balls, off the serve or off the ground.  The key battles will be the Djokovic forehand to the Nadal backhand - this is where Nole is the clear favorite.  Movement and defending used to be an area Nadal reigned supreme in, but now, especially with the foot injury, this battle should also show Djokovic as the favorite.  Having already beaten Rafa four times this year (all in finals & two on clay) the mental edge would have to be given to Nole, but with Rafa, he's never defeated until the umpire says 'game, set, match'.  All things considered, I see Djokovic coming out on top in a tight one.  


Sit back, buckle your seat belts and enjoy the ride that will be the 2011 Wimbledon Men's final.