Barclays ATP World Tour Finals - London 2011 Preview

It seems like just yesterday, I was on pins and needles waiting for the 2011 Australian Open to begin, and now it's time for the year end finals.  The top eight qualifiers are (in order of ranking), Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, Roger Federer, David Ferrer, Tomas Berdych, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Mardy Fish.  This year, Novak Djokovic finally announced himself as the new/current king of tennis by dominating Rafael Nadal in every final they've faced this year - two of them majors, and only losing to Roger Federer once.  At this year's Barclays ATP World Tour Finals, the storyline will be Djokovic, Nadal, and Federer.  It's not as if the other players in the tournament don't have a shot at winning, but clearly, the big three (even if Federer is now ranked number four) will be the guys to beat.

If it weren't for a shoulder injury, Nole would be the clear favorite...but, this is the same injury he was dealing with when he won the US Open this year.  Then there is Rafael Nadal, who also nursing a shoulder injury, had to pull out of the Paris Masters.  To date this year, Rafa has been unable to get the best of Nole - the inside out forehand that troubles most players is handled like child's play by Djokovic.  There's also the 'head' factor...that is, Nole is definitely inside Rafa's head.  Against every other player on tour, Federer included, Rafa has a mental advantage over them, but Djokovic is the Spaniard's kryptonite.  The third part of the storyline is Roger Federer.  With only 710 points separating him and Andy Murray in the rankings, Federer could conceivably overtake Andy Murray for the number three position.  He would have to win the title without losing any round robin matches - that would mean he would have to beat Nadal.  Keep in mind that 1) he did beat Nadal in the tour finals last year, and 2) Nadal has never won the world tour finals - in part because this late in the season, Rafa's body has been taken to the brink.


Group A will consist of Novak Djokovic-1, Andy Murray-3, David Ferrer-5, and Tomas Berdych-7.  First matches of this group will be on Monday, November 21 w/Djokovic vs Berdych, and Murray vs Ferrer.  .  Djokovic holds a 7-1 head-to-head vs Berdych - his only defeat coming in the 2010 Wimbledon semifinal.  Murray is 5-3 against Ferrer, all of the loses to Ferrer were on clay.  Let us not forget, that since the US Open, Murray has amassed a 17-1 match winning streak until losing to Berdych last week in the quarter finals of the Paris Masters.  According to Murray, his new diet has given him more energy, time will tell what it has done for his mindset.  Djokovic and Murray are each nursing injuries, so the level of their performances will be questionable until the tournament begins.  Tomas Berdych is very capable of beating any of the players in the draw, but his head seems to always let him down when things matter most.. On paper his best chance in his group would be against Andy Murray, being that he has a losing record against both Djokovic (1-7) & Ferrer (2-5).  David Ferrer, the human backboard, is a respectable player, but doesn't really have a weapon that can hurt the top guys.  He doesn't give players many free points, nor does he get many - he's a top eight player because of his ability to run down balls and keep them in play, but he doesn't have a kill shot.  He only has a winning record against Berdych, so chances that he wins more than one round in his round robin group is slim.

Group B has Rafael Nadal-2, Roger Federer-4, Jo Wilfried Tsonga-6, and Mardy Fish-8.  First matches for Group B is on Sunday, November 20 w/Federer vs Tsonga, and Nadal vs Fish.  Although Federer holds a 7-3 advantage of Tsonga, he will have his work cut out for him - two of Tsonga's three wins against Federer happened this year, one at his beloved Wimbledon in the quarter finals.  On the other side of Group B, Nadal has a 7-1 record against Mardy Fish.  Fish's only win against Nadal was this year at the Masters in Cincinnati. Nadal and Fish are both coming back from injuries, but I'll bet on an injured Nadal over an injured Fish any day.  On paper, group B seems like it will come down to Nadal and Federer reaching the semifinals, but Tsonga could prove to be a spoiler.  He has one win over Rafa this year (at Queen's Club), and as stated earlier, two wins against Federer.  To Roger's credit, he has been playing better now than earlier this year.  His shots seems to have the sting back in them, and his confidence seems to have risen - even with a less than stellar season.

As with every other tournament that has had the top four guys in the field, all eyes will be on them - with the possibility of some spoilers.  In this case, the best chance for a spoiler will be Jo-Willy (baby Ali)...he covers a lot of court for a big dude, and he is not intimidated by any of the top guys.

The finals will be shown on the Tennis Channel, coverage beginning at 7a.  For those of you who don't have the Tennis Channel, live stream will be shown on livescorehunter.com beginning at 8a with Federer/Tsonga, then Nadal/Fish at 2p.  Happy watching!

UPDATE - ATP Tennis - Six players to look out for in 2011

Earlier this year, I listed six players that I thought would have a good 2011 season.  They were (in order of current ranking), Novak Djokovic 1, Andy Murray 3, Tomas Berdych 6,  Juan Martin Del Potro 10, Alexandr Dolgopolov 16, and Milos Raonic 30.  Now, I will update their progress.

Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic, now world number one, started off the year ranked number three, once again in the shadow of Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer.  Going into the Australian Open, all the talk was focused on Nadal, and whether or not he could complete the 'Rafa Slam'.  Hopes of that happening were ended when Rafa was beaten in the quarterfinals by fellow Spaniard, David Ferrer.  At tournament end, Nole was the last man standing, defeating Federer in the semifinals, and earning his second career major by defeating Andy Murray decisively in the final.  Little did anyone know what would happen over the course of the season.  Having gotten his health and his head in check, Nole went on a winning spree.  Up to this point in the season, he has suffered only three loses - Federer in semifinals of Roland Garros, Andy Murray in finals of Cincinnati (retiring in the 2nd set w/a shoulder injury), and to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the quarterfinals of of the Paris Masters (walk over).  His record vs top ten players is 20-3.  He has beaten Nadal is six finals - two majors & four masters (2 of the 4 masters on clay); Federer in two semifinals - Australian Open & US Open, and one final - Dubai.  He beat Rafa and Roger in the same tournament on three occasions this year.  He has become the first player since 2004 not named Federer or Nadal to hold the number one position in the rankings or to have won at Wimbledon.  He has won ten titles this year, including three majors & four masters series tournaments.
-Rankings jump - 2 positions.

Andy Murray

Andy Murray began the 2011 season ranked as number five, and his year looked very promising when he made the finals of the Australian Open.  He played a blistering six matches, looking like he would take the title, but then in the final, Novak Djokovic gave him a lesson in big boy tennis.  He went on a miserable slump after that losing matches to players well below his ranking & ability, two of them (Donald Young 143 & Alex Bogomolov Jr 118) were outside of the top 100.  Luckily, during this time frame in 2010 he had the same slump after losing to Federer in Australian Open, so he didn't have a lot of points to lose.  By April, he got his bearings back, and put together three semifinal runs on clay, beginning at the Monte Carlo through Roland Garros.  Going into the grass season, he won a warm up tournament at the Queen's Club, and posted a respectable semifinal run at Wimbledon, losing to Nadal.  Midsummer, he added a masters series title at Cincinnati to his trophy case, and made it to the semifinals of the US Open losing to eventual runner up, Rafael Nadal.  Since the US Open, he was on a 17 match win streak until losing to Tomas Berdych in the quarterfinals of the Paris Masters.  With a strong second half of 2011, Murray was able to overtake Roger Federer for the number three ranking position.
-Rankings jump - 2 positions.

Tomas Berdych

Not much to say about Tomas Berdych.  He started off the year ranked number six, and that's where he sits now.  He slipped as far down as number ten in the rankings, but has been able to climb back up.  He has won one title this year in Beijing this past October, defeating Marin Cilic in the final.  Berdych took out world number one, Novak Djokovic, in the quarter finals of the Paris Masters, and he has booked a spot in the ATP World tour finals. Even if he wins the tour finals, he won't have enough points to move up any positions, but he does run the risk of falling if does not do better that Jo Wilfried Tsonga, who is only five rankings points behind him.
-Rankings jump - 0 positions.

Juan Martin Del Potro

One of my favorite players is Juan Martin Del Potro .  In 2009 he found his game, and won his first major at the US Open, beating Roger Federer in the final.  After missing most of 2010 because of a wrist injury and surgery, he is starting to find his way again.   He was able to win two titles this year (Delray Beach and Estoril).  He started off 2011 ranked 485, but has since clawed his way back into the top 10, currently ranked ten in the world.  Because of his unusually low ranking, he met a lot of the top players in the early rounds of the majors & bigger tournaments that he played.  It's only a matter of time before he once again finds himself in the winner's circle at a major.
-Rankings jump - 475 positions.

Alexandr Dolgopolov

Alexandr Dolgopolov made some noise at this year's Australian Open by beating Jo Wilfried Tsonga and Robin Soderling before losing to Andy Murray in the quarterfinals.  He has a hard hitting, no fear style of play that should serve him well in the years to come.  Dolgo picked up his first career ATP singles title mid summer at the Croatian Open (clay).  Since beginning year ranked 48th in the world, he has moved into the top 20 with a current rank of 16.
-Rankings jump - 32 positions.

Milos Raonic

Lastly, there is Milos Raonic.  Milos turned some heads as well at the Australian Open by making it to the round of 16, losing to David Ferrer.  Like Dolgo, Milos won his first career ATP singles title mid summer in San Jose (hardcourt).  He also made another final this summer in Memphis, losing to Andy Roddick in three tight sets.  Starting off the year ranked number 53, he is now 30th in the world, but in early May was ranked as high as 25.  He will definitely be a contender for a major at some point doing his career.  
-Rankings jump - 23 positions.