US Open Preview

The US Open, which runs from August 29th through September 11th, is the final major of the year and it's one of my favorites to watch.  Mostly because is on my mainland so the TV coverage on ESPN2 is INSANE, from about 11am EST to 11pm - and if a match goes past 11pm, which it normally does, there's more!  Going into the US Open this year, we get another chance to watch what happens with the Djokovic-Nadal-Federer thrivalry.  I find the thrivalry extremely fascinating in the fact that Nadal has figured out how to crack the Federer code, Federer seems to have cracked the Djokovic code, and Djokovic has definitely figured out how to crack the Nadal code.  Djokovic should be the top seed in the tournament, so we'll have to watch to see which side of the draw Roger Federer ends up on.  All eyes will definitely be on the thrivalry once the tournament begans - will Djokovic continue his domination over Nadal this year, will Nadal finally get one under his cap against Nole in 2011, or will Federer spoil the party for both of them?  But let us not forget about the other guys, mainly Juan Martin Del Potro. 

Novak Djokovic

Novak Djokovic is on an incredible run this year, only having been defeated once and that was by Federer in the French Open semi finals.  He needs a great result at the US Open to give himself a safety net in his rankings lead over Nadal, who is defending champion.  Great result meaning he HAS to make the finals to defend the 1200 points he earned last year by making the final - losing in the final to Nadal.  Currently Djokovic has about 2000 points over Nadal in the rankings - a good showing for him at the Open would be a definite plus for him going into next year.  Come 2012, Djokovic will have a LOT of points to defend.  He has three things on his side VS Nadal going into the tournament.  One, he has a perfect 5-0 record against Rafa this year, all five of those wins have been in finals - four masters series events & one major.  Two, traditionally, hard courts have been Djokovic's strongest surface and Nadal's weakest, or at least the one that took Nadal longest to master.  Three, he is inside Nadal's head.  I think all pressure should be off of Nole at the US Open.  He has already captured the number one  position in the rankings, and consolidated that by beating Nadal in the finals of Wimbledon.

Rafael Nadal

Rafael Nadal comes into the US Open as defending champion, with 2000 points that he could lose in the rankings if he doesn't win this year's title.  Already being about 2000 behind Djokovic in the rankings could make reclaiming the number one position more than a chore than it will be already. With the stress of defending championship points, and Nole in his head, this will be a hard one for Nadal.  The injury Rafa sustained at Wimbledon should be well healed and he should have no need for the cortisone shots he was taking.  That being said, hard courts are hard on most bodies, they are especially hard on Nadal's given the violent, harsh style of play he possesses.  Also, by the time the US Open comes around, Nadal's body has already taken a beating.  Rafa is only 25, but his body has a lot of miles on it, and his ultimate domination days are behind him.  His best chance for wins at majors will be at Roland Garros and Wimbledon.

Roger Federer

Coming in at a distant number three is the great Roger Federer.  Roger hasn't won major since the 2010 Australian Open, and his best chance to win another major would be on the hard courts, either the US Open or the Australian Open.  No longer is he able to just coast through a major to reach the finals, not even at his beloved Wimbledon.  Too many of the guys are a step ahead of him, fitter than him, and too many know how to beat him.  Some will argue that he is the greatest of all time (GOAT), but I don't subscribe to that thought.  How can he be the greatest of all time, when he has been unable to tame the likes of the Spanish Bull, Rafael Nadal.  The man is a masterful tennis player, but the greatest he is not, one of the greatest, without a doubt.  Although I believe that he can win another major before he retires, it's safe to say that his best tennis is well behind him.  The 30 year old has too many things against him, like Djokovic, Nadal, Murray, Tsonga, Del Potro (you get the idea).  He will definitely have something to prove to himself going into the US Open, but the chips will be stacked against him.

Andy Murray

Andy Murray.  The plight of this guy is (fill in the blank).  We all know that he has the game to win a major, but his head won't let him break through.  He's beaten Nole, Rafa, and Roger on more than one occasion, but not when it really counts.  Maybe he'll look at what Djokovic has been able to do this year and get some encouragement, or maybe at least pull his head out his arse & stop being such a 'brat' on court - a little positive display would take him a long way.  Murray's best performance at the US Open came in 2008 where he lost miserably to Federer 2-6, 5-7, 2-6.  Since then, he hasn't made it past the round of 16.  It has been said many times that sooner or later he will win a major, but the more I see him play big matches, the less I believe it.  I think the problem is that he doesn't believe it either.  

Juan Martin Del Potro

Juan Martin Del Potro won this tournament in 2009 before his injury, beating down Nadal in the semis 6-2, 6-2, 6-2, and taking out Federer in the final in five sets.  He will be seeded at this year's Open, so there shouldn't be any early match ups with the top guys.  He has steadily improved this year, losing early in both the French (Djokovic in four sets, round of 32) & Wimbledon (Nadal in four sets round of 16).  He started out 2011 ranked number 484, and as of now (7/20/11), he stands at number 19.  The courts at Flushing Meadows suit his style of hard flat hitting, and he moves pretty well for a big guy.  I don't expect that he will win the tournament, but he will definitely give any one of the 'Big Four' a run for their money.  (**sidenote: I'm beginning to have trouble including Andy Murray in the Big Four - it just doesn't sound right anymore)


There are some other players that can possibly have a good run at the US Open, but I expect that the semi finals will be contested by four of the five listed in this post.  The US Open is truly the tournament of champions, meaning there are rarely break through performances here.  Before coming to New York, the top players have had six weeks to sharpen their hard court games, unlike the Australian Open at the beginning of the year, or the French & especially Wimbledon where there are very few warm up tournaments.  

Obviously, there is some time before the Open begins, and we have the next month or so to watch players performances during the Olympus US Open Series, but this year's Open is going to be electric...I promise!  It must be love.


Also, you can check livescorehunter.com to see US Open Series matches through the week which are not broadcast on TV.