If it weren't for a shoulder injury, Nole would be the clear favorite...but, this is the same injury he was dealing with when he won the US Open this year. Then there is Rafael Nadal, who also nursing a shoulder injury, had to pull out of the Paris Masters. To date this year, Rafa has been unable to get the best of Nole - the inside out forehand that troubles most players is handled like child's play by Djokovic. There's also the 'head' factor...that is, Nole is definitely inside Rafa's head. Against every other player on tour, Federer included, Rafa has a mental advantage over them, but Djokovic is the Spaniard's kryptonite. The third part of the storyline is Roger Federer. With only 710 points separating him and Andy Murray in the rankings, Federer could conceivably overtake Andy Murray for the number three position. He would have to win the title without losing any round robin matches - that would mean he would have to beat Nadal. Keep in mind that 1) he did beat Nadal in the tour finals last year, and 2) Nadal has never won the world tour finals - in part because this late in the season, Rafa's body has been taken to the brink.
Group A will consist of Novak Djokovic-1, Andy Murray-3, David Ferrer-5, and Tomas Berdych-7. First matches of this group will be on Monday, November 21 w/Djokovic vs Berdych, and Murray vs Ferrer. . Djokovic holds a 7-1 head-to-head vs Berdych - his only defeat coming in the 2010 Wimbledon semifinal. Murray is 5-3 against Ferrer, all of the loses to Ferrer were on clay. Let us not forget, that since the US Open, Murray has amassed a 17-1 match winning streak until losing to Berdych last week in the quarter finals of the Paris Masters. According to Murray, his new diet has given him more energy, time will tell what it has done for his mindset. Djokovic and Murray are each nursing injuries, so the level of their performances will be questionable until the tournament begins. Tomas Berdych is very capable of beating any of the players in the draw, but his head seems to always let him down when things matter most.. On paper his best chance in his group would be against Andy Murray, being that he has a losing record against both Djokovic (1-7) & Ferrer (2-5). David Ferrer, the human backboard, is a respectable player, but doesn't really have a weapon that can hurt the top guys. He doesn't give players many free points, nor does he get many - he's a top eight player because of his ability to run down balls and keep them in play, but he doesn't have a kill shot. He only has a winning record against Berdych, so chances that he wins more than one round in his round robin group is slim.
Group B has Rafael Nadal-2, Roger Federer-4, Jo Wilfried Tsonga-6, and Mardy Fish-8. First matches for Group B is on Sunday, November 20 w/Federer vs Tsonga, and Nadal vs Fish. Although Federer holds a 7-3 advantage of Tsonga, he will have his work cut out for him - two of Tsonga's three wins against Federer happened this year, one at his beloved Wimbledon in the quarter finals. On the other side of Group B, Nadal has a 7-1 record against Mardy Fish. Fish's only win against Nadal was this year at the Masters in Cincinnati. Nadal and Fish are both coming back from injuries, but I'll bet on an injured Nadal over an injured Fish any day. On paper, group B seems like it will come down to Nadal and Federer reaching the semifinals, but Tsonga could prove to be a spoiler. He has one win over Rafa this year (at Queen's Club), and as stated earlier, two wins against Federer. To Roger's credit, he has been playing better now than earlier this year. His shots seems to have the sting back in them, and his confidence seems to have risen - even with a less than stellar season.
As with every other tournament that has had the top four guys in the field, all eyes will be on them - with the possibility of some spoilers. In this case, the best chance for a spoiler will be Jo-Willy (baby Ali)...he covers a lot of court for a big dude, and he is not intimidated by any of the top guys.
The finals will be shown on the Tennis Channel, coverage beginning at 7a. For those of you who don't have the Tennis Channel, live stream will be shown on livescorehunter.com beginning at 8a with Federer/Tsonga, then Nadal/Fish at 2p. Happy watching!
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